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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in South Carolina be at least 10 percentage points?

YES means Wilson, 10+ pts

24h volume
0
277 lifetime
Open interest
96
Spread
5¢
10 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
68%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
32%

costs 31¢

YES bid / ask
69¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 31¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5094¢
  • ask7994¢
  • ask5594¢
  • ask5094¢
  • ask6991¢
  • ask20577¢
  • ask575¢
  • ask574¢
spread5¢mid 72¢
  • bid1069¢
  • bid21068¢
  • bid20027¢
  • bid31926¢
  • bid10218¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in South Carolina by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
10
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-SCGOVR-P10
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago68¢55bought no
7d ago68¢10bought no
1mo ago60¢60bought yes
1mo ago59¢5bought yes
1mo ago60¢19bought yes
1mo ago59¢5bought yes
2mo ago53¢3.29bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.