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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 15th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?

YES means Cruz, 1+ pts

24h volume
0
2,750 lifetime
Open interest
620
−93 over 30d
Spread
7¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
37¢ – 46¢
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
43%

A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
57%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 36¢
NO bid / ask
64¢ / 71¢
24h low 37¢24h high 46¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask4.880¢
  • ask34476¢
  • ask20875¢
  • ask20038¢
  • ask1537¢
  • ask536¢
spread7¢mid 32¢
  • bid20029¢
  • bid1755¢
  • bid1,8091¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 15th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
May 5 · 8:21 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-TX15R-P1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago43¢200bought no
11d ago44¢15bought no
11d ago41¢95bought no
11d ago46¢200bought yes
14d ago41¢205bought yes
21d ago39¢200bought yes
26d ago39¢2.43bought yes
29d ago38¢10bought yes
29d ago37¢5bought no
1mo ago38¢2.5bought yes
1mo ago41¢50bought yes
1mo ago41¢245bought yes
1mo ago37¢5bought yes
1mo ago38¢200bought yes
2mo ago41¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.