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Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?

YES means James Talarico, 5+ pts

24h volume
387
31.8k lifetime
Open interest
25.6k
+12.1k over 7d
Spread
1¢
10.0k × 207 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 29¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%−1

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
24h low 18¢24h high 29¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,71029¢
  • ask1,80228¢
  • ask2,30127¢
  • ask2,30426¢
  • ask1,71625¢
  • ask85024¢
  • ask15323¢
  • ask20722¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid10.0k21¢
  • bid1.3920¢
  • bid8.8119¢
  • bid72218¢
  • bid25617¢
  • bid20.4k16¢
  • bid3009¢
  • bid3009¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 28 · 1:03 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXSEND-P5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago21¢200bought no
8h ago22¢59bought no
8h ago22¢1.67bought no
15h ago22¢126bought no
19h ago22¢0.29bought no
1d ago22¢214bought no
1d ago22¢2.08bought no
1d ago22¢150bought no
1d ago22¢2.25bought no
2d ago22¢50bought no
2d ago23¢3.28bought no
2d ago22¢56bought no
2d ago23¢4.14bought no
2d ago23¢1bought no
2d ago25¢84bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.