galdor.xyz
Admin
Midterm margin of victory·closes in 14mo

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Wisconsin be at least 7 percentage points?

YES means Crowley, 7+ pts

24h volume
0
6,191 lifetime
Open interest
4,196
Spread
3¢
183 × 150 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 36¢
NO bid / ask
64¢ / 67¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3060¢
  • ask3055¢
  • ask60041¢
  • ask60040¢
  • ask90339¢
  • ask10038¢
  • ask10037¢
  • ask15036¢
spread3¢mid 35¢
  • bid18333¢
  • bid60032¢
  • bid29413¢
  • bid27012¢
  • bid55011¢
  • bid1,7567¢
  • bid2,1867¢
  • bid5004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Wisconsin by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
7
ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-WIGOVD-P7
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago32¢11bought no
2d ago31¢3.82bought no
3d ago35¢1bought no
3d ago35¢1bought no
4d ago37¢5bought yes
5d ago32¢1bought no
5d ago28¢1bought no
7d ago29¢25bought no
7d ago29¢100bought no
7d ago30¢50bought no
7d ago29¢36bought no
8d ago26¢200bought yes
8d ago26¢1bought yes
12d ago24¢200bought no
12d ago22¢436bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.