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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?

YES means Above 12M

24h volume
0
10.3k lifetime
Open interest
4,472
+134 over 7d
Spread
9¢
300 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
62%

A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
38%

costs 39¢

YES bid / ask
61¢ / 70¢
NO bid / ask
30¢ / 39¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,02190¢
  • ask1,11189¢
  • ask1,00087¢
  • ask1,76886¢
  • ask3,46085¢
  • ask2,22284¢
  • ask55083¢
  • ask20070¢
spread9¢mid 66¢
  • bid30061¢
  • bid6757¢
  • bid1,11156¢
  • bid50055¢
  • bid1,11151¢
  • bid50050¢
  • bid1,11136¢
  • bid2,22231¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election is above 12000000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 6 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
12000000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12000000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago62¢4.14bought no
1d ago63¢2.55bought no
2d ago72¢136bought yes
4d ago71¢4.14bought yes
7d ago70¢1.39bought yes
8d ago67¢24bought no
8d ago67¢200bought yes
8d ago63¢200bought no
14d ago63¢30bought no
15d ago62¢150bought no
17d ago71¢0.02bought yes
17d ago72¢5bought yes
17d ago73¢1.74bought yes
18d ago65¢10bought no
19d ago64¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.