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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4700000?

YES means Above 4.70M

24h volume
50
1,447 lifetime
Open interest
1,310
Spread
9¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
31 recent trades
Chance of YES
37%−2

A YES contract costs 37¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
63%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 37¢
NO bid / ask
63¢ / 72¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask43790¢
  • ask30387¢
  • ask27774¢
  • ask44873¢
  • ask26772¢
  • ask12171¢
  • ask668¢
  • ask20037¢
spread9¢mid 33¢
  • bid20028¢
  • bid9.118¢
  • bid7012¢
  • bid4011¢
  • bid439¢
  • bid908¢
  • bid857¢
  • bid6896¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election is above 4700000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 17 · 7:59 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4700000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MISEN-4700000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 31 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago37¢3.88bought yes
22h ago18¢41bought no
22h ago19¢5bought no
3d ago39¢16bought no
14d ago46¢15bought yes
19d ago44¢41bought yes
19d ago71¢75bought yes
19d ago41¢200bought yes
28d ago39¢12bought yes
29d ago33¢27bought no
1mo ago41¢47bought yes
1mo ago41¢4.1bought yes
1mo ago45¢43bought yes
1mo ago40¢200bought yes
1mo ago40¢194bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.