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Midterm Voter Turnout·closes in 14mo

Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5600000?

YES means Above 5.60M

24h volume
189
1,372 lifetime
Open interest
654
+189 over 7d
Spread
3¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 15¢
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−5

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 88¢
24h low 15¢24h high 15¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18998¢
  • ask20060¢
  • ask54857¢
  • ask20040¢
  • ask7339¢
  • ask338¢
  • ask20015¢
spread3¢mid 14¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid1023¢
  • bid3912¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election is above 5600000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5600000
ticker
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MISEN-5600000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago15¢189bought no
3d ago20¢200bought no
4d ago24¢200bought yes
4d ago22¢50bought yes
7d ago18¢137bought no
12d ago15¢43bought no
15d ago15¢51bought no
15d ago16¢59bought no
15d ago15¢10bought no
15d ago14¢15bought no
18d ago16¢57bought no
1mo ago17¢40bought no
1mo ago17¢52bought no
1mo ago22¢43bought yes
2mo ago10¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.