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Pro Baseball Debut·closes in 10mo

Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?

YES means Before Aug 1, 2027

24h volume
0
1,156 lifetime
Open interest
317
−400 over 7d
Spread
7¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
69¢ – 73¢
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
69%

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
31%

costs 27¢

YES bid / ask
73¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 27¢
24h low 69¢24h high 73¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15099¢
  • ask9096¢
  • ask35795¢
  • ask20081¢
  • ask580¢
spread7¢mid 77¢
  • bid573¢
  • bid20072¢
  • bid9057¢
  • bid1,7128¢
  • bid1005¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Franklin Arias plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
May 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMLBDEBUT-FARIAS-27AUG01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago69¢200bought no
4d ago72¢200bought no
4d ago73¢5bought no
1mo ago86¢200bought yes
1mo ago86¢14bought yes
1mo ago76¢250bought yes
1mo ago71¢250bought yes
1mo ago70¢2bought yes
1mo ago71¢0.78bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.