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Pro Baseball Debut·closes in 9mo

Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?

YES means Before Aug 1, 2027

24h volume
0
1,221 lifetime
Open interest
277
+0 over 7d
Spread
8¢
6 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
74%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
26%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 34¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volOct 29Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask48396¢
  • ask55395¢
  • ask5394¢
  • ask9089¢
  • ask1488¢
  • ask285¢
  • ask184¢
  • ask20074¢
spread8¢mid 70¢
  • bid666¢
  • bid20065¢
  • bid155¢
  • bid9050¢
  • bid6735¢
  • bid19834¢
  • bid25232¢
  • bid1,77617¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Franklin Arias plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
May 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMLBDEBUT-FARIAS-27AUG01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18d ago73¢1bought yes
18d ago73¢2bought yes
18d ago74¢4.32bought yes
18d ago73¢6bought yes
25d ago67¢5bought no
25d ago66¢45bought no
27d ago74¢2bought yes
2mo ago69¢200bought no
2mo ago72¢200bought no
2mo ago73¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.