Moldova presidency·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?

YES means Natalia Gavrilița

24h volume
0
887 lifetime
Open interest
322
Spread
200 × 369 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/ 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 94¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask44492¢
  • ask2,56092¢
  • ask24992¢
  • ask36914¢
spreadmid 10¢
  • bid200
  • bid195
  • bid1,255
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Natalia Gavrilița wins the next Moldovan presidential election before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
May 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 31, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 31, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOLDOVAPRES-28-NGAV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 68¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16d ago31bought no
27d ago14¢31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.