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Manned mission to the Moon·closes in 52mo

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

YES means China

24h volume
4.07
48.9k lifetime
Open interest
19.7k
Spread
3¢
15 × 710 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 72¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55074¢
  • ask2474¢
  • ask10574¢
  • ask772¢
  • ask20650¢
  • ask9443¢
  • ask15836¢
  • ask71031¢
spread3¢mid 30¢
  • bid1528¢
  • bid24028¢
  • bid2028¢
  • bid8828¢
  • bid526¢
  • bid5423¢
  • bid50023¢
  • bid6020¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 28, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOONMAN-31-PRC
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
52m ago31¢3.07bought yes
22h ago28¢1bought no
2d ago31¢158bought yes
4d ago31¢1bought yes
4d ago28¢14bought no
4d ago31¢36bought yes
4d ago31¢14bought yes
5d ago31¢3.06bought yes
5d ago31¢15bought yes
6d ago29¢23bought yes
6d ago31¢9.14bought yes
7d ago28¢1bought no
7d ago28¢5.91bought no
7d ago29¢2bought yes
9d ago28¢9bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.