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Manned mission to the Moon·closes in 52mo

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

YES means Russia

24h volume
0
8,114 lifetime
Open interest
5,791
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
50 × 1,113 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 17, 6:00 PMSep 18, 5:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5010¢
  • ask89¢
  • ask1005¢
  • ask5004¢
  • ask2.194¢
  • ask13¢
  • ask892¢
  • ask1,1132¢
spread2¢mid 1¢
  • bid500¢
  • bid25.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Russia is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 28, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOONMAN-31-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago2¢26bought yes
19d ago0¢25bought no
19d ago0¢33bought no
19d ago1¢20bought no
19d ago0¢59bought no
20d ago2¢2bought yes
20d ago2¢2bought yes
23d ago1¢5.77bought no
26d ago2¢1bought yes
26d ago2¢1bought yes
1mo ago1¢1bought no
2mo ago1¢3.23bought no
2mo ago2¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.