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Manned mission to the Moon·closes in 52mo

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

YES means United States

24h volume
261
82.9k lifetime
Open interest
33.3k
+198 over 7d
Spread
3¢
22 × 40 at the touch
24h range
55¢ – 56¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%+4

A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask
53¢ / 56¢
NO bid / ask
44¢ / 47¢
24h low 55¢24h high 56¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6069¢
  • ask8.5164¢
  • ask56563¢
  • ask24460¢
  • ask50060¢
  • ask2960¢
  • ask4.3456¢
  • ask4056¢
spread3¢mid 54¢
  • bid2253¢
  • bid2652¢
  • bid0.1752¢
  • bid50052¢
  • bid6051¢
  • bid240¢
  • bid2928¢
  • bid6628¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 28, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago56¢260bought yes
22h ago55¢1bought yes
1d ago52¢18bought no
1d ago52¢16bought no
6d ago52¢1bought no
6d ago52¢29bought no
6d ago53¢1bought no
7d ago56¢1bought yes
7d ago52¢20bought no
7d ago52¢8.48bought no
7d ago56¢13bought no
7d ago53¢4.34bought no
8d ago57¢8.48bought yes
8d ago57¢8.5bought yes
9d ago53¢3.87bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.