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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will James McAvoy be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means James McAvoy

24h volume
0
3,264 lifetime
Open interest
650
+1 over 30d
Spread
17¢
5 × 1 at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 28¢
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 92¢
24h low 22¢24h high 28¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23775¢
  • ask1,51574¢
  • ask16673¢
  • ask56959¢
  • ask4858¢
  • ask10031¢
  • ask29830¢
  • ask125¢
spread17¢mid 17¢
  • bid58¢
  • bid745¢
  • bid2342¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If James McAvoy is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-JAM
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23d ago22¢1bought no
24d ago28¢0.32bought yes
30d ago27¢25bought yes
1mo ago20¢1.27bought no
1mo ago20¢12bought no
1mo ago11¢1bought no
1mo ago22¢25bought no
1mo ago30¢1.27bought yes
2mo ago26¢1.32bought no
2mo ago25¢33bought no
2mo ago29¢15bought yes
2mo ago29¢8.84bought yes
2mo ago21¢1bought yes
2mo ago29¢16bought no
2mo ago29¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.