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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Will Poulter be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Will Poulter

24h volume
0
1,772 lifetime
Open interest
1,248
Spread
26¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 97¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12263¢
  • ask13561¢
  • ask5360¢
  • ask1933¢
  • ask6632¢
  • ask1.6931¢
  • ask530¢
  • ask529¢
spread26¢mid 16¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid2542¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Will Poulter is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-WIL
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24d ago6¢5bought no
24d ago19¢0.31bought yes
1mo ago20¢100bought no
1mo ago20¢1bought no
1mo ago20¢12bought no
1mo ago20¢100bought no
1mo ago23¢244bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago11¢5bought no
1mo ago17¢50bought no
1mo ago20¢119bought yes
1mo ago17¢119bought no
1mo ago20¢247bought no
1mo ago23¢250bought no
2mo ago25¢1.31bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.