when will movie release·closes in 34mo

Will a fourth Austin Powers movie be released United States before Jul 1, 2029?

YES means Before July 2029

24h volume
0
61 lifetime
Open interest
33
−4 over 90d
Spread
5 × 127 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
73%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
27%

costs 33¢

YES bid / ask
67¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 33¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

60¢70¢80¢90¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20095¢
  • ask5094¢
  • ask12774¢
spreadmid 71¢
  • bid567¢
  • bid10066¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a fourth Austin Powers movie has been publicly released in the United States through official channels before Before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download. The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country. Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify. Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released. Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical. Foreign language titles are considered the same media unless otherwise specified.

opened
Jun 17 · 4:28 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2029 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIERELEASEDATE-AUS-29JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago73¢10bought yes
1mo ago74¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.