Mississippi cotton production·closes in 17mo

Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 1,000,000 bales?

YES means Above 1,000,000 bales

24h volume
300
9,133 lifetime
Open interest
1,612
−427 over 7d
Spread
150 × 350 at the touch
24h range
24¢ – 33¢
Chance of YES
27%+1

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 72¢
24h low 24¢24h high 33¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,05099¢
  • ask1,97884¢
  • ask5683¢
  • ask3982¢
  • ask55545¢
  • ask11133¢
  • ask35031¢
spreadmid 30¢
  • bid15028¢
  • bid30027¢
  • bid7.8826¢
  • bid1,00025¢
  • bid6015¢
  • bid265
  • bid322
  • bid44
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 1,000,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales.

opened
Aug 18 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2028 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1000000
ticker
KXMSCOTTON-28JAN31-T1000000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.