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Mississippi cotton production·closes in 17mo

Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 1,000,000 bales?

YES means Above 1,000,000 bales

24h volume
0
9,133 lifetime
Open interest
1,612
Spread
3¢
150 × 350 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 72¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,05099¢
  • ask877¢
  • ask1,37876¢
  • ask37575¢
  • ask55545¢
  • ask17344¢
  • ask11133¢
  • ask35031¢
spread3¢mid 30¢
  • bid15028¢
  • bid30027¢
  • bid7.8826¢
  • bid1,00025¢
  • bid6015¢
  • bid2659¢
  • bid3228¢
  • bid445¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If USDA NASS reports that Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 is above 1,000,000 bales, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is USDA NASS’s reported Cotton, Upland - Production for Mississippi for the 2027 crop year, measured in 480-pound bales. Use Cotton → Cotton, Upland → Production → 480 LB Bales.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 18 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2028 · 2:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1000000
ticker
KXMSCOTTON-28JAN31-T1000000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago27¢0.01bought yes
1d ago27¢100bought yes
1d ago27¢200bought yes
2d ago26¢2.76bought yes
2d ago26¢5.12bought yes
3d ago26¢200bought no
3d ago26¢100bought no
3d ago24¢175bought no
3d ago27¢125bought no
3d ago28¢200bought no
3d ago32¢125bought no
3d ago32¢600bought no
3d ago32¢218bought no
3d ago32¢333bought no
3d ago32¢125bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.