music report·closes in 15mo

Will ARIRANG be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?

YES means ARIRANG

24h volume
0
13.7k lifetime
Open interest
4,396
+148 over 30d
Spread
29¢
5 × 128 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
82%

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
18%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask
53¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 47¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20599¢
  • ask1,37898¢
  • ask16497¢
  • ask15795¢
  • ask10994¢
  • ask15085¢
  • ask583¢
  • ask12882¢
spread29¢mid 68¢
  • bid553¢
  • bid552¢
  • bid550¢
  • bid10048¢
  • bid10040¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If ARIRANG is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 26, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMUSICREPORT-TOPVYNLSALE27DEC31-ARI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 131¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago82¢1.52bought yes
1d ago64¢1.52bought yes
2d ago39¢1.11bought no
2d ago43¢1.11bought yes
2d ago41¢100bought no
2d ago39¢100bought no
3d ago42¢5bought yes
3d ago43¢100bought yes
4d ago43¢1.11bought yes
4d ago43¢6.28bought yes
4d ago42¢5bought yes
5d ago35¢2.32bought no
9d ago35¢4.57bought no
9d ago42¢4.57bought yes
14d ago45¢78bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.