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music report·closes in 15mo

Will The Fall Off be #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard?

YES means The Fall Off

24h volume
100
3,678 lifetime
Open interest
1,430
−47 over 90d
Spread
3¢
0 × 156 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask82653¢
  • ask1,08238¢
  • ask34735¢
  • ask7233¢
  • ask4231¢
  • ask13730¢
  • ask2504¢
  • ask1563¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If The Fall Off is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10-Selling Vinyl Albums of 2026 in U.S., as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 26, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXMUSICREPORT-TOPVYNLSALE27DEC31-FAL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 131¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 9 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3h ago1¢100bought no
    4d ago1¢100bought no
    17d ago1¢100bought no
    20d ago1¢100bought no
    29d ago1¢100bought no
    29d ago1¢50bought no
    29d ago2¢200bought no
    2mo ago1¢93bought no
    2mo ago1¢7bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.