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Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?·closes in 16mo

Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero?

YES means YES

24h volume
1,156
12.6k lifetime
Open interest
2,651
−1,156 over 7d
Spread
7¢
21 × 200 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 8¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%−1

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 97¢
24h low 6¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 17Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2078¢
  • ask53849¢
  • ask20039¢
  • ask65537¢
  • ask14836¢
  • ask5035¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask20010¢
spread7¢mid 6¢
  • bid213¢
  • bid1162¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes.

For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNAURURENAME-27JAN01-YES
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 8¢).

This is the only market in Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago8¢1,056bought yes
2h ago6¢100bought yes
19d ago9¢4.47bought yes
26d ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago8¢5bought yes
1mo ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago8¢10bought yes
1mo ago8¢10bought no
1mo ago9¢5bought no
1mo ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago8¢5bought yes
1mo ago8¢3.85bought yes
1mo ago9¢7bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.