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NBA Retirement·closes in 38mo

Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season?

YES means Before the 2029-30 season

24h volume
0
166 lifetime
Open interest
50
−5.5 over 7d
Spread
62¢
0 × 14 at the touch
24h range
–
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 100¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10098¢
  • ask5697¢
  • ask1790¢
  • ask1462¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Kevin Durant announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Note: The retirement must be intended to be effective immediately or prior to the first new season after the announcement. For the purposes of this market, the NBA season start date is defined as the date of the first regular season game for that season. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 27 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 15, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 15, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNBARETIRE-KDURANT7-2930
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 5 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago41¢5bought no
    4d ago40¢5.5bought no
    2mo ago55¢8.18bought yes
    2mo ago40¢3.75bought no
    2mo ago41¢5bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.