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NBA Retirement·closes in 14mo

Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season?

YES means Before the 2027-28 season

24h volume
0
7,024 lifetime
Open interest
1,887
+0 over 24h
Spread
12¢
5 × 87 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 67¢

YES bid / ask
33¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 67¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢50¢volSep 20, 7:55 AMSep 21, 4:49 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask877¢
  • ask1,21675¢
  • ask82774¢
  • ask9060¢
  • ask96054¢
  • ask18047¢
  • ask30046¢
  • ask8745¢
spread12¢mid 39¢
  • bid533¢
  • bid332¢
  • bid81012¢
  • bid1,59811¢
  • bid99010¢
  • bid1,7458¢
  • bid26¢
  • bid515¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2027-28 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: The retirement must be intended to be effective immediately or prior to the first new season after the announcement. For the purposes of this market, the NBA season start date is defined as the date of the first regular season game for that season. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
May 28 · 12:45 AM UTC
closes
Nov 15, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 15, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNBARETIRE-LJAMES23-2728
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago47¢20bought yes
3d ago43¢0.84bought yes
12d ago42¢4.16bought no
15d ago42¢2bought no
18d ago46¢4.16bought yes
20d ago42¢419bought no
28d ago47¢84bought yes
28d ago42¢79bought no
28d ago43¢5bought no
29d ago42¢5.07bought no
1mo ago49¢2.31bought yes
1mo ago44¢11bought yes
1mo ago49¢0.09bought yes
1mo ago48¢0.56bought yes
1mo ago44¢26bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.