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NBA Retirement·closes in 38mo

Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season?

YES means Before the 2029-30 season

24h volume
0
614 lifetime
Open interest
263
+218 over 90d
Spread
3¢
1 × 800 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 94¢
NO bid / ask
6¢ / 9¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00099¢
  • ask1,85098¢
  • ask48097¢
  • ask20095¢
  • ask80094¢
spread3¢mid 93¢
  • bid191¢
  • bid10090¢
  • bid2,42888¢
  • bid1,53987¢
  • bid9075¢
  • bid1,60074¢
  • bid50066¢
  • bid55064¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: The retirement must be intended to be effective immediately or prior to the first new season after the announcement. For the purposes of this market, the NBA season start date is defined as the date of the first regular season game for that season. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
May 28 · 12:45 AM UTC
closes
Nov 15, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 15, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNBARETIRE-LJAMES23-2930
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13d ago94¢0.04bought yes
13d ago90¢0.02bought yes
13d ago93¢1bought yes
1mo ago88¢72bought no
1mo ago89¢5.04bought no
1mo ago89¢5.04bought no
2mo ago93¢21bought yes
2mo ago89¢5.51bought no
2mo ago90¢5bought yes
2mo ago90¢15bought yes
2mo ago90¢25bought yes
2mo ago90¢5bought yes
2mo ago90¢25bought yes
2mo ago90¢8bought yes
2mo ago90¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.