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Men's College Basketball Spread·closes in 2d

California wins by over 15.5 points

24h volume
71.2k
71.4k lifetime
Open interest
52.6k
Spread
4¢
271 × 112 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%−3

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 55¢
Recent buying65% YES · 35% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask256¢
  • ask355¢
  • ask2754¢
  • ask25253¢
  • ask252¢
  • ask651¢
  • ask3,80050¢
  • ask11249¢
spread4¢mid 47¢
  • bid27145¢
  • bid1,40044¢
  • bid11243¢
  • bid10.3k40¢
  • bid2,02739¢
  • bid2238¢
  • bid237¢
  • bid1,00236¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If California wins by more than 15.5 points in the Radford vs California men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 4 · 2:06 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7 · 2:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 5 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
15.5
ticker
KXNCAAMBSPREAD-26NOV04RADCAL-CAL16
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 65% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago49¢20bought yes
9m ago48¢20bought yes
13m ago46¢552bought no
13m ago46¢75bought no
13m ago46¢73bought no
13m ago46¢5bought no
15m ago45¢197bought no
16m ago46¢185bought yes
17m ago46¢213bought yes
18m ago45¢8bought no
18m ago46¢75bought no
19m ago48¢224bought yes
19m ago48¢100bought yes
19m ago48¢704bought yes
21m ago49¢197bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.