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New Pope·closes in 525mo

Who will the next Pope be?

YES means Anders Arborelius

24h volume
0
17.2k lifetime
Open interest
4,222
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
713 × 525 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1526¢
  • ask1875¢
  • ask835¢
  • ask3005¢
  • ask8454¢
  • ask1704¢
  • ask994¢
  • ask5254¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid7132¢
  • bid3,8811¢
  • bid6060¢
  • bid11.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anders Arborelius becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWPOPE-70-AARB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 34¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago4¢27bought yes
1d ago4¢1bought yes
1d ago2¢1bought no
9d ago4¢1bought yes
9d ago4¢1bought yes
9d ago4¢1bought yes
13d ago4¢1bought yes
16d ago2¢73bought no
1mo ago4¢73bought yes
2mo ago2¢1bought no
2mo ago2¢90bought no
2mo ago3¢108bought no
2mo ago4¢33bought yes
2mo ago4¢33bought yes
2mo ago4¢33bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.