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New Pope·closes in 527mo

Who will the next Pope be?

YES means Pietro Parolin

24h volume
0
24.5k lifetime
Open interest
5,060
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
150 × 272 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 17

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8827¢
  • ask117¢
  • ask2211¢
  • ask40010¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask4418¢
  • ask5006¢
  • ask2725¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid1504¢
  • bid9584¢
  • bid33¢
  • bid571¢
  • bid3721¢
  • bid3501¢
  • bid5001¢
  • bid11.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pietro Parolin becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWPOPE-70-PPAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 21¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago4¢1bought no
3d ago4¢193bought no
3d ago5¢33bought yes
3d ago5¢33bought yes
3d ago5¢25bought yes
3d ago5¢3bought yes
3d ago5¢33bought yes
3d ago5¢33bought yes
3d ago5¢33bought yes
11d ago5¢1bought yes
12d ago4¢5bought no
13d ago5¢1bought yes
13d ago5¢1bought yes
13d ago5¢1bought yes
13d ago5¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.