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Newsom announces presidential run by...?·closes in 3mo

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
14
3,327 lifetime
Open interest
1,504
+533 over 90d
Spread
13¢
5 × 221 at the touch
24h range
8¢ – 22¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%+5

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 99¢
24h low 8¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8.6277¢
  • ask9.8970¢
  • ask42669¢
  • ask6868¢
  • ask667¢
  • ask5.942¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask22114¢
spread13¢mid 8¢
  • bid51¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid2981¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago13¢1bought yes
8h ago14¢13bought yes
4d ago9¢1bought no
6d ago15¢22bought yes
6d ago15¢2.04bought yes
6d ago8¢5bought no
6d ago13¢200bought no
14d ago18¢10bought yes
14d ago18¢25bought yes
14d ago16¢59bought yes
28d ago17¢3bought yes
28d ago16¢33bought yes
28d ago14¢67bought yes
28d ago14¢7bought yes
30d ago9¢102bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.