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Newsom announces presidential run by...?·closes in 13mo

Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2027

24h volume
0
747 lifetime
Open interest
550
Spread
70¢
5 × 123 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 74¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 74¢
NO bid / ask
26¢ / 96¢
Recent buying85% YES · 15% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1,70899¢
  • ask17995¢
  • ask5295¢
  • ask12374¢
spread70¢mid 39¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid2000¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWSOMRUN-28-27OCT01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 85% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago76¢0.12bought yes
8d ago76¢2.58bought yes
18d ago74¢28bought yes
1mo ago73¢5bought yes
1mo ago74¢1.57bought yes
2mo ago71¢6.57bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.