Next Chancellor of Germany·closes in 36mo

Will Alice Weidel become Chancellor of Germany following the next German federal election?

YES means Alice Weidel

24h volume
0
485 lifetime
Open interest
485
+0 over 24h
Spread
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 84¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 2:51 AMSep 20, 8:52 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask84489¢
  • ask20088¢
  • ask20025¢
spreadmid 21¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid322
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alice Weidel becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity. A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Aug 26, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Sep 26, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-AWEI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 29¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago20¢63bought yes
11d ago17¢200bought yes
11d ago68¢33bought yes
11d ago15¢126bought yes
20d ago15¢63bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.