galdor.xyz
Admin
Next hurricane date·closed · NO

When will the next hurricane form?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2026

Before Oct 15 is 76¢. Something is expected, but the Category 5 market has 'before Dec 1' at only 15¢, so nothing the market believes will be historic.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
0
21.5k lifetime
Open interest
9,868
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO

This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26OCT01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago3¢3.98bought yes
1mo ago2¢18bought yes
1mo ago3¢1bought yes
1mo ago2¢217bought yes
1mo ago1¢250bought yes
1mo ago3¢8bought yes
1mo ago2¢653bought no
1mo ago2¢2bought yes
1mo ago2¢3bought no
1mo ago2¢3bought yes
1mo ago2¢19bought yes
1mo ago2¢1bought yes
1mo ago3¢10bought yes
1mo ago2¢85bought no
1mo ago2¢17bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.