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Next Labor Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

YES means Riley Moore

24h volume
0
5,444 lifetime
Open interest
4,988
+0 over 7d
Spread
7¢
0 × 300 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 100¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,22098¢
  • ask2,91097¢
  • ask65984¢
  • ask4883¢
  • ask11755¢
  • ask29649¢
  • ask39148¢
  • ask3007¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the first new person to be Secretary of Labor is Riley Moore before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 9 · 4:45 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-RMOO
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 6 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2mo ago2¢5.42bought no
    2mo ago3¢5bought no
    2mo ago2¢59bought no
    2mo ago10¢87bought yes
    2mo ago7¢5bought yes
    2mo ago7¢5bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.