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Who will be the next Romanian PM?·closes in 223mo

Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

YES means Lucian Croitoru

24h volume
0
1,324 lifetime
Open interest
1,071
+0 over 30d
Spread
6¢
0 × 478 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 100¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4689¢
  • ask3,07887¢
  • ask7535¢
  • ask1334¢
  • ask268¢
  • ask4786¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Lucian Croitoru, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 5 · 6:15 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-LCRO
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 166¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 6 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1mo ago6¢15bought yes
    2mo ago2¢20bought no
    2mo ago3¢1bought no
    2mo ago3¢100bought no
    2mo ago4¢93bought no
    2mo ago6¢1bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.