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Who will be the next Romanian PM?·closes in 223mo

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

YES means Sorin Grindeanu

24h volume
0
19.4k lifetime
Open interest
2,475
Spread
3¢
105 × 75 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 75¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask80275¢
  • ask7562¢
  • ask5461¢
  • ask154¢
  • ask15037¢
  • ask1434¢
  • ask20029¢
  • ask7528¢
spread3¢mid 27¢
  • bid10525¢
  • bid9.423¢
  • bid20021¢
  • bid15017¢
  • bid5714¢
  • bid80013¢
  • bid49411¢
  • bid59¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Romania after Issuance is Sorin Grindeanu, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 5 · 6:15 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-SGRI
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago27¢200bought yes
2d ago27¢20bought yes
2d ago26¢36bought yes
2d ago26¢11bought yes
2d ago25¢5bought yes
2d ago25¢2bought yes
4d ago12¢5bought no
4d ago14¢65bought no
4d ago16¢1.09bought yes
4d ago16¢12bought yes
5d ago13¢5.36bought no
5d ago14¢0.3bought no
5d ago14¢7bought no
5d ago15¢54bought no
5d ago17¢89bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.