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Next Secretary of the Army·closes in 40mo

Will Derrick Anderson be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Derrick Anderson

24h volume
0
1,512 lifetime
Open interest
1,081
Spread
5¢
0 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask1,97396¢
  • ask9395¢
  • ask5026¢
  • ask505¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Derrick Anderson formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the first qualifying permanent holder is not named in this event, each named market resolves No.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 3 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01-DAND
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 75¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 11 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    12d ago2¢236bought no
    12d ago1¢100bought no
    17d ago2¢14bought no
    17d ago2¢25bought no
    17d ago12¢39bought yes
    18d ago87¢49bought yes
    18d ago9¢100bought yes
    18d ago9¢200bought yes
    18d ago88¢31bought yes
    18d ago90¢693bought yes
    18d ago10¢25bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.