Next House speaker·closes in 52mo

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?

YES means Hakeem Jeffries

24h volume
0
27.7k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 500 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 17¢

YES bid / ask
83¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 17¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

75¢80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Feb 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-HJEF
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago86¢89bought yes
8d ago85¢10bought yes
8d ago90¢10bought yes
8d ago85¢5bought yes
8d ago85¢5bought yes
8d ago85¢10bought yes
8d ago80¢1bought no
8d ago81¢5bought no
8d ago79¢6.1bought no
9d ago85¢1bought yes
9d ago85¢4bought yes
9d ago85¢5bought yes
10d ago83¢5bought no
10d ago82¢15bought no
10d ago81¢24bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.