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Next House speaker·closes in 52mo

Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?

YES means Jim Jordan

24h volume
0
5,423 lifetime
Open interest
2,939
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
12 × 2,833 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 90¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 20, 10:49 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10156¢
  • ask2,24054¢
  • ask1,51053¢
  • ask4652¢
  • ask2851¢
  • ask50034¢
  • ask1328¢
  • ask2,83315¢
spread5¢mid 13¢
  • bid1210¢
  • bid5008¢
  • bid492¢
  • bid4992¢
  • bid1,7781¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jim Jordan is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-JJOR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago10¢11bought no
7d ago10¢30bought no
7d ago10¢10bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
24d ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago15¢346bought yes
1mo ago15¢48bought yes
1mo ago18¢10bought yes
1mo ago18¢18bought yes
1mo ago19¢73bought yes
1mo ago12¢11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.