Miami wins
YES means Miami
Miami opened as a road underdog and the in-game price has collapsed to a coin's edge. San Francisco at 90¢ is priced like a game that is effectively over.
- 24h volume
- 4.40M
- 4.76M lifetime
- Open interest
- 3.52M
- Spread
- 100¢
- 0 × 0 at the touch
- 24h range
- 1¢ – 18¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.
An independent read of this market
NO on Miami: the 49ers already beat the Dolphins 24-10, so this market should settle at zero.
Multiple news sources confirm the Dolphins-49ers Week 2 game (Sep 20, 2026) has concluded with San Francisco winning 24-10 at Levi's Stadium. Kalshi's YES price for Miami has already collapsed from 0.11 to 0.05-0.07 intraday, consistent with market participants pricing in the loss just before official settlement. There is no realistic path for this to resolve YES.
Kelly-capped at 0.20 of risk budget on NO given high confidence the game is final and Miami lost; edge is large (price 0.06-0.07 vs true probability ~0.02) but position should still respect thin remaining time to settlement and possible residual liquidity risk.
What the evidence says
- 149ers beat Dolphins 24-10 in the Sep 20, 2026 game at Levi's StadiumSI.com / search summary · 2026-09-20
- 2Kalshi traders had 49ers at ~90% to win pre-game, Dolphins at 11%Kalshi News · 2026-09-20
- 3Kalshi YES price for Miami fell from 0.11 to 0.05-0.07 in the final hour, consistent with game result trickling inKalshi price history· 2026-09-20
How it resolves
Resolves YES if Miami wins the Sep 20, 2026 game against San Francisco per NFL.com official results; ties split 50/50; postponement rules don't apply since game was played on schedule. Game is over with 49ers winning 24-10, so this settles NO.
What the tape says
Price dropped sharply from 0.11 to as low as 0.03-0.05 then bounced to 0.07 with mixed taker flow near market close/expiration, typical of thin end-of-game trading noise. Volume spiked heavily (30k-14k contracts) in the last two hours, indicating the game concluded and traders are unwinding positions. Given the final score is already known (49ers won), the 0.06-0.07 YES price is stale/mispriced and should converge to 0.
What would change this
- If the reported final score is inaccurate or the game is not yet actually final (e.g., still in a late stage) contradicting the search results
- Any official scoring correction or forfeiture reversal (extremely unlikely)
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Miami wins the MIA Dolphins vs SF 49ers Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the MIA Dolphins vs SF 49ers Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours from its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- opened
- Aug 25 · 3:33 PM UTC
- closes
- Sep 20 · 11:11 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Sep 20 · 11:25 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF-MIA
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 267 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 0.02 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 94 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 935 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 468 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 468 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 281 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 94 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 28 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 468 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 1,870 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 94 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 82 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 46 | bought yes |
| 4h ago | 1¢ | 500 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.