Dallas wins
YES means Dallas
- 24h volume
- 5.56M
- 5.74M lifetime
- Open interest
- 3.13M
- Spread
- 100¢
- 0 × 0 at the touch
- 24h range
- 61¢ – 99¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.
An independent read of this market
ABSTAIN: Dallas leads late in a live game and the 84-85¢ price already reflects it — no edge left to trade.
This market pays YES if Dallas beats Washington in the Sep 20, 2026 game (NFL.com official result is the settlement source). The game is in progress: news confirms a 17-10 Dallas lead as of roughly 21:00 UTC, and the Kalshi price jumped from 0.66 to 0.85 around 21:10 UTC and has held steady near 0.84-0.85 for the last hour of trading, consistent with Dallas maintaining or extending that lead. With about 1 hour left before the contract's expiration window (23:25 UTC) and heavy, liquid two-sided flow around 84-85¢, the market price appears to already be a fair, real-time estimate of Dallas's win probability given the game state.
No position: the market price (0.85) is within my estimated fair-value band (0.80-0.90) and the 1c spread already prices in the live game state efficiently, so there's no exploitable edge to size against.
What the evidence says
- 1Kalshi YES price for Dallas jumped from 0.66 pre-game to 0.85 around 21:10 UTC on Sep 20, 2026, and has held near 0.84-0.85 since, with high volume and open interest growth (from ~121k to ~2.09M contracts).Kalshi exchange data· 2026-09-20
- 2Stefon Diggs scored a Commanders touchdown to cut Dallas's lead to 17-10, indicating Dallas was leading by two scores mid-to-late in the game as of publication around 21:00 UTC.Commanders Wire (USA Today) · 2026-09-20
- 3Pre-game, Dallas was a 3.5-4.5 point favorite at home (AT&T Stadium), with pre-game moneyline odds around 65-66% for Dallas per betting markets/Kalshi and Polymarket comparisons.MLive · 2026-09-20
How it resolves
Resolves YES if Dallas wins the WAS @ DAL game "originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026," per the Governing League (NFL) official result. A tie splits 0.50/0.50. If postponed, it can still resolve based on final result as long as the game starts within 48 hours of the original slot; otherwise it settles at a "fair price." No unusual edge cases apply here since the game is being played on schedule.</rules_reading>
What the tape says
Price spiked from a pre-game level of 0.66 to 0.85 around 21:10 UTC on Sep 20 and has been stable at 0.84-0.85 for about an hour since, with tight 1c spread, large depth on both sides (168k+ contracts at 0.84 bid, ~30k-620k on the ask ladder), and two-way taker flow — this looks like a level reflecting the current in-game state, not a fleeting spike. Volume is very high (~$2.9M in the last day), consistent with an actively traded live NFL game market.
What would change this
- Score could have changed materially in the ~1 hour between the last confirmed news update (17-10 Dallas) and the current market timestamp — a Washington comeback would not be reflected in stale news.
- Any injury to a key Dallas player (e.g., Dak Prescott) late in the game could swing win probability quickly.
- If the game is unexpectedly suspended or postponed, unusual settlement rules (48-hour restart window, fair-price fallback) could apply.
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Dallas wins the WAS Commanders vs DAL Cowboys Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who wins the WAS Commanders vs DAL Cowboys Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours from its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- opened
- Aug 25 · 3:33 PM UTC
- closes
- Sep 20 · 11:33 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Sep 20 · 11:25 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20WASDAL-DAL
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 2.5 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 30 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 102 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 101 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 8.07 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 29 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 5.09 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 20 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 2.76 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 23 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 28 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 16 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 24 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 99¢ | 148 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.