Nominal GDP growth in [year]·closes in 29mo

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.5%?

YES means Above 5.5%

24h volume: 0; 1.01 lifetime
Open interest: 1; +1 over 90d
Spread: 92¢; 0 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 2 recent trades

Chance of YES

41%

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

59%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask

0¢ / 92¢

NO bid / ask

8¢ / 100¢

Recent buying1% YES · 99% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask20092¢

spread–mid –

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2028,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.

Settlement sources

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

opened: Aug 6 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 28, 2029 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Feb 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 5.5
ticker: KXNOMGDPGROWTH-29JAN28-T5.5

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 1% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
1mo ago	41¢	1	bought no
1mo ago	26¢	0.01	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.