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Next New Zealand Prime Minister·closes in 14mo

Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

YES means Chris Hipkins

24h volume
0
1,355 lifetime
Open interest
863
+0 over 24h
Spread
8¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 64¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢50¢volSep 20, 9:11 PMSep 21, 6:37 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12295¢
  • ask1186¢
  • ask85085¢
  • ask25584¢
  • ask1183¢
  • ask20046¢
  • ask20045¢
  • ask544¢
spread8¢mid 40¢
  • bid20036¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chris Hipkins becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Nov 7, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 10 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNZPM-26NOV07-CHIP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 155¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago40¢153bought yes
6d ago35¢2bought yes
6d ago35¢20bought yes
6d ago35¢20bought yes
7d ago35¢40bought yes
7d ago35¢30bought yes
7d ago35¢40bought yes
7d ago35¢30bought yes
7d ago35¢90bought no
9d ago39¢70bought no
9d ago39¢5bought no
9d ago39¢79bought no
9d ago39¢5bought no
10d ago44¢11bought yes
11d ago36¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.