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Next New Zealand Prime Minister·closes in 14mo

Will Qiulae Wong become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?

YES means Qiulae Wong

24h volume
0
871 lifetime
Open interest
871
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
0 × 382 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 21, 2:12 AMSep 21, 2:13 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10351¢
  • ask2750¢
  • ask9949¢
  • ask226¢
  • ask77325¢
  • ask49224¢
  • ask2005¢
  • ask3821¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Qiulae Wong becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Nov 7, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 10 · 2:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXNZPM-26NOV07-QWON
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 155¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 10 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    11d ago3¢166bought no
    11d ago3¢34bought no
    11d ago3¢200bought no
    11d ago3¢35bought no
    11d ago3¢0.94bought no
    11d ago3¢200bought no
    11d ago3¢1.04bought no
    11d ago3¢29bought no
    11d ago5¢5bought no
    11d ago1¢200bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.