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Open AI vs Anthropic·closes in 162mo

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

YES means OpenAI

24h volume
2,521
195.0k lifetime
Open interest
50.3k
+2,157 over 7d
Spread
4¢
129 × 3 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 47¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%+3

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 92¢
24h low 6¢24h high 47¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask343¢
  • ask20030¢
  • ask36028¢
  • ask25027¢
  • ask20026¢
  • ask118¢
  • ask50013¢
  • ask312¢
spread4¢mid 10¢
  • bid1298¢
  • bid5007¢
  • bid246¢
  • bid3114¢
  • bid5393¢
  • bid1,8882¢
  • bid3,8131¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 11:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOAIANTH-40-OAI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
53m ago12¢500bought no
53m ago13¢35bought no
53m ago13¢2.98bought no
2h ago18¢38bought yes
2h ago19¢20bought yes
4h ago8¢28bought no
4h ago9¢38bought no
4h ago8¢1bought no
4h ago6¢3.89bought no
6h ago8¢2bought no
6h ago40¢2bought yes
6h ago40¢2bought yes
6h ago40¢2bought yes
6h ago40¢2bought yes
6h ago40¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.