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Open AI vs Anthropic·closes in 160mo

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

YES means OpenAI

24h volume
1,376
216.0k lifetime
Open interest
50.8k
+607 over 7d
Spread
1¢
1,948 × 507 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−6

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volOct 29Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.4220¢
  • ask10314¢
  • ask513¢
  • ask50010¢
  • ask5009¢
  • ask2268¢
  • ask4725¢
  • ask5074¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid1,9483¢
  • bid7352¢
  • bid1,7091¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6, 2025 · 11:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOAIANTH-40-OAI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7m ago4¢117bought yes
2h ago4¢14bought yes
2h ago4¢51bought yes
3h ago3¢50bought no
8h ago4¢17bought yes
16h ago3¢47bought no
18h ago4¢292bought no
18h ago4¢34bought no
18h ago4¢7.08bought no
18h ago4¢535bought no
18h ago4¢2.44bought no
18h ago4¢300bought no
22h ago5¢28bought no
24h ago9¢0.14bought no
1d ago10¢94bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.