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OpenAI damages·closes in 16mo

Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
8,902 lifetime
Open interest
4,008
−3.34 over 7d
Spread
5¢
5 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
34 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 57¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 48¢

YES bid / ask
52¢ / 57¢
NO bid / ask
43¢ / 48¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4395¢
  • ask3384¢
  • ask1,07081¢
  • ask10079¢
  • ask2475¢
  • ask60059¢
  • ask12958¢
  • ask1557¢
spread5¢mid 55¢
  • bid552¢
  • bid50051¢
  • bid69025¢
  • bid48624¢
  • bid8720¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid10513¢
  • bid10010¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If OpenAI pays tort damages of more than $1 million before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOAIDAMAGE-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?.

Recent trades

Over the last 34 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago52¢5bought no
2d ago51¢3.36bought no
2d ago57¢0.02bought yes
2d ago58¢8.34bought yes
4d ago58¢4.34bought yes
4d ago52¢0.02bought no
8d ago51¢1bought no
11d ago40¢2.72bought yes
11d ago58¢10bought yes
17d ago20¢13bought no
23d ago26¢200bought no
23d ago27¢10bought no
23d ago40¢24bought yes
25d ago40¢0.52bought no
25d ago40¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.