Next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party?·closes in 14mo

Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?

YES means Lee Fairclough

24h volume: 0; 219 lifetime
Open interest: 216; +215 over 30d
Spread: 75¢; 15 × 5 at the touch
24h range: 14¢ – 15¢

Chance of YES

15%

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

85%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask

19¢ / 94¢

NO bid / ask

6¢ / 81¢

24h low 14¢24h high 15¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Lee Fairclough wins the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

Ontario Liberal Party — Chief Returning Officer

opened: Aug 11 · 3:27 PM UTC
closes: Nov 21, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Nov 21, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-LFAI

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 69¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.