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Next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party?·closes in 14mo

Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?

YES means Navdeep Bains

24h volume
0
964 lifetime
Open interest
202
+0 over 24h
Spread
6¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 54¢

YES bid / ask
46¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 54¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volSep 20, 7:49 AMSep 21, 6:10 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3598¢
  • ask51080¢
  • ask39554¢
  • ask553¢
  • ask552¢
spread6¢mid 49¢
  • bid546¢
  • bid20045¢
  • bid20018¢
  • bid14017¢
  • bid34515¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Navdeep Bains wins the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 11 · 3:27 PM UTC
closes
Nov 21, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 21, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-NBAI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 69¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago50¢31bought no
7d ago51¢30bought no
8d ago51¢5bought no
8d ago52¢20bought no
9d ago52¢20bought no
9d ago52¢7bought no
9d ago52¢5bought no
9d ago53¢22bought no
9d ago53¢20bought no
9d ago53¢8bought no
9d ago54¢8bought no
9d ago52¢10bought no
10d ago54¢10bought no
10d ago53¢5bought no
10d ago52¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.