OpenAI another Millennium Prize claim·closes in 16mo

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume
0
9,371 lifetime
Open interest
3,233
+3,232 over 30d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
82%

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
18%

costs 23¢

YES bid / ask
77¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 23¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 8Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9395¢
  • ask10894¢
  • ask20085¢
spreadmid 81¢
  • bid577¢
  • bid20076¢
  • bid36819¢
  • bid52718¢
  • bid500
  • bid500
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture do NOT count. Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 8 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOPENAIANOTHERMILLENNIUM-28-28JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago82¢0.06bought yes
5d ago78¢15bought no
5d ago77¢19bought no
5d ago76¢15bought yes
5d ago77¢74bought yes
5d ago78¢200bought yes
5d ago94¢73bought yes
5d ago86¢32bought yes
5d ago87¢200bought yes
6d ago77¢26bought yes
6d ago83¢2.32bought no
6d ago83¢0.82bought no
6d ago83¢1.42bought no
6d ago82¢200bought no
6d ago83¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.