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OpenAI lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?

YES means Citigroup

24h volume
0
2,001 lifetime
Open interest
1,831
+0 over 7d
Spread
4¢
0 × 600 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5884¢
  • ask4,06983¢
  • ask925¢
  • ask1124¢
  • ask46912¢
  • ask1005¢
  • ask6004¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Citigroup serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-CITIX
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.