galdor.xyz
Admin
OpenAI lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?

YES means Goldman Sachs

24h volume
0
8,842 lifetime
Open interest
2,615
+0 over 24h
Spread
6¢
5 × 9 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 25¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 6:41 AMSep 21, 5:18 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask79298¢
  • ask12194¢
  • ask1.2691¢
  • ask50082¢
  • ask981¢
spread6¢mid 78¢
  • bid575¢
  • bid50074¢
  • bid7020¢
  • bid1,28319¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Goldman Sachs serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-GSX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago79¢4.51bought no
10d ago85¢2.32bought yes
10d ago85¢1.15bought yes
10d ago83¢500bought yes
10d ago83¢1bought yes
13d ago78¢5.57bought yes
13d ago78¢5bought yes
13d ago79¢72bought yes
13d ago80¢349bought yes
13d ago74¢1.51bought no
13d ago74¢66bought no
17d ago74¢1bought no
22d ago73¢314bought no
22d ago74¢150bought no
23d ago25¢4.98bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.